The Beginning of the End for GMO
It may just be that marketing mistakes will finally bring down the GMO colossus.
I have to make a disclaimer here, and tell you that this post is somewhat speculative. But maybe it will give us heart as we contemplate the future. I was talking with a coffee farmer from just south of Kailua, discussing the possibility of GMO genes contaminating a farmer’s crop by accident, and then the company that made the gene taking ownership of the crop. He had not even considered that disturbing scenario before. But since it has actually been tried in the past, he became very concerned about the future. Which made me feel a little concerned for bringing it up.
So this post is dedicated to him. Maybe the future is starting to look just a little brighter.
One rather serious mistake that GMO marketers are making, which may have far reaching consequences, is that they are overselling what GMO can do. The hype placed in industry publications by Monsanto promises to increase grain production by 100% within 22 years. But in reality, they do not have the roadmap to get there from here. So far, they have made GMO grains resistant to herbicides, specifically Roundup®. They will have to manipulate genetics far more profoundly, in exponentially more difficult realms, in order to double yield. And yet they have had few successes outside of simple herbicide resistance.
Assuming they have tricks up their sleeves that we don’t know about… and to be fair, they might… the timeframe is still simply awful. 2030. That’s a terribly long wait for a hungry world. If they can deliver. Which I frankly doubt.
But say that the wait is acceptable, and they can somehow manage to pull several different colors of rabbits out of their mink-lined top hats. There may be a completely fatal marketing mistake that has already been made, and may be too late to undo.
The kings of GMO have tunnel-focused their efforts on just four crops that are superstars in the USA: cotton, corn, soybeans and canola. All but about one-seventh of the GMO crops in the entire world are comprised of just these four foods. But the vast majority of farmers in the world, especially farmers in poorer countries do not grow these crops! They grow garbanzo beans and spelt and gourds and strange crops whose names I do not even recognize.
In order for GMO to fulfill its promises to the world, one of two things must happen. Farmers in every country must change over from their traditional foods to a short list of American favorites. Or the GMO behemoth must start producing modified varieties of more kinds of crops than you can shake a stick at. Including, of course, the one most dear to the hearts of BehindTheCoffee.com readers… coffee.
And that is where real farmers have started to put their collective foot down. Hard. After our euphoric honeymoon with the first four GMO brides of Frankenstein, we have stepped back, taken a good look at the baggage that came with those relationships… the ’superweeds’ that took on the characteristics of Roundup-Ready® Corn and are now immune to that workhorse herbicide… the unknown effects of foods with GMO structures in them… the unbridled spread of GMO throughout the ecosphere, despite assurances of ‘it can’t possibly happen’. And a significant portion of us have simply said ‘no’ to the further horrors which undoubtedly lie somewhere down that road.
The development of GMO versions of other foodstocks has been delayed, and sometimes nearly blocked, by informed farmers who have considered the alternatives, and have decided they can get more production using safe, traditional methods. One that is mentioned in Marks Blog points out that when more varieties of bees pollenate a crop, coffee cherry fruit set can be increased by 50%. Much better than having to buy GMO seed year after year! Because as you may know, GMO seed is not fertile. You cannot save seed from one year’s crop to plant the next year. You must buy new seed from its maker each year. Forever.
Many marginal product categories have been successfully created by a good marketing plan. Dare we hope that this disastrous product category will be undone by a marketing plan that is, fortunately, on the same level of competence as the product it is glorifying?
